Things we're watching...

There are a number of good option entries shaping up...here's a list of a few we're watching now (some nice TTC-a longs--some still need to confirm, but good looking charts):

COO - has broken resistance after a TTC-a, but forming a bit of a "hat" now...will watch this to see if it moves up or down over the coming days.

ICE - nice chart that needs to make that final step above resistance prior to going long.

MER - another really nice TTC-a that needs to "confirm". Might be really nice next week.

PCAR - same with this--should a good confirm happen, this could be a nice entry next week.

TK - another waiting for a confirm. This has a bit more of a "channel" feel to it, but is one we'll be watching for an entry.

UBB - classic TTC-a. Some resistance coming up at $75 though.

Cards that hurt your credit rating - MSN Money

Cards that hurt your credit rating - MSN Money

Another article on credit cards, and how your credit (FICO) score can be adversely affected just by owning a credit card. Worth reading, especially if you have one of the new "no limit" credit cards (even if you pay it off each month!)

Once more, it proves it pays to check your credit rating periodically.

5 lessons the rich can teach you - MSN Money

5 lessons the rich can teach you - MSN Money

This is yet another good money management article from MSN. Worth the read.

NOTE: If you've not yet taken the "Personal Financial Basics" course from EMI/EWI you should consider it. It's given on Mondays at 7:00 PM EST and covers a good deal of sound money managment, debt control, long-term investing strategies, etc.

Tuesday's Tale

Well, it's been another interesting week, and today should be entertaining. We have a Fed meeting today, and expectations will change should the Fed drop any "hints" as to future interest rate changes--no matter what, it'll likely cause some volatility. As most news is viewed as "bad news" look for a drop in prices... still things could move up with good news...stay tuned!

As for the markets--although we dropped below support at 11,300 on Friday, we're back above now, with a nice close yesterday (Monday) at 11,352. So long as we stay above 11,300 we remain bullish on the indices.

Likewise, the NASDAQ is now challenging resistance at 2,160 and moving above 2,175 would be a very bullish sign. Likewise the S&P is also challenging it's resistance level of 1,300 (and closed at 1,301 on Monday). Staying above this is also a good sign.

So in summary, things are looking up...we're at or above some significant resistance numbers. Our indices, after some large moves a short while back, look to be now completing their "flag" formations, and are indicating a likely move to the upside.

We're bullish, and will remain so, so long as our support levels are not broken. We are looking only for new longs, and any open shorts we're looking for an "excuse" to exit.

Wishing you a good week on the trading floor.

Watching this week

We're feeling bullish this week, but remember the indices MUST be moving in our direction prior to entering any new long trades. There is a good possiblity the DOW is going to "digest" it's big move last week, and perhaps form a "flag" here for a few days.

While it does so, we'll monitor it, but once it starts to move again (either up or down) from the flag, we'll look for new entries. We're expecting a few days of rest, and then a continuation of the up trend. Consequently, some new longs we're keeping our eyes on include:

TXU - a very nice TTC-a entry. We'll need this and the markets to be up to enter a new long.

RAI - a nice breakout above resistance on clearly higher volume happened on Friday. A move up is expected shortly. Another nice long.

FCX - a breakout from a converging channel, on nice volume. Yes indeed, another nice long entry.

WCG - one to watch, but last time I checked it had little open interest. Be careful to look at that, and the spreads on price prior to considering this. Still, a nice looking chart.

A few others we're keeping our eye on: HAR, RAIL, CAM, BUCY

One more needs to confirm, but the trend on this chart is very nice--CEO.

Those will be enough to keep us busy this week, but again, the key is that the markets MUST be moving in our direction. Given the schizophrenic nature of the markets lately, we'll want to be sure all our ducks are marching in the same direction prior to entering new trades.

Good trading to all this week!

Two more addtions, both "channel breakouts": NEU and TRMB. Both of these might be new entries today. Very nice breakouts on strong volume! Both have made big moves (so we'll need to be wary of profit taking) but ones to watch certainly.

End of the Week Update

Well, it's been a bit of a different week, so perhaps a "different" update at the end of the week (rather than at the beginning or the middle) fits.

At our last update, we'd just seen another rapid drop in the DOW (and other indices) from 11,200 to below 11,100. At that time, we'd set those as important levels--sustained trading below 11,100 as a bearish sign, and a movement above 11,200 as a bullish sign. However, I'd expected us to channel between these levels for a while.

Instead, the markets made a major move this week, completely blowing past 11,200 and in fact moving above and closing(!) above 11,300. While I expect we may give back some of those profits today (Friday) this is nevertheless a strongly bullish sign.

We are now firmly above previous resistance levels, and have essentially completed a "double-bottom" in the DOW. These are all good signs for long traders.

So what now? Well, now that we've broken resistance, those levels now becomes support. So:

DOW
For the DOW, 11,300 is now our support level. We don't want to see a fall below this. Should that happen and we fall below 11,300 we'll hold off any new longs until we move back up. Certainly 11,200 is now a solid floor--breaking that level will now be a strong bearish sign. Again, look for some profit taking today, but next week will likely be a "green light" for new longs, and we'll be "shopping" on our watch list today, looking for potential entries.

NASDAQ
The NASDAQ had been in a nice descending channel. That pattern has been broken these past few days. On Tuesday we moved above one level of resistance at 2,100; on Wednesday we broke a secondary resistance level around 2,140; and then on Thursday we moved and closed above 2,150--a very strong showing for this index.

What's next? QAgain, probably some profit taking, but clearly the "character" of this chart has changed. Again, we're looking for the green light next week for new longs. A move above 2,175 would be a wonderful confirmation.

S&P
Again, all resistance levels for the S&P have been broken. Profit taking will be expected, and then a move up next week.

Of course, we could always get "bad" news (in the Middle East, etc.) that could put a damper on this, but right now, we're looking forward to next week. I'd also expect that this may be a bit of an extended run, so looking for positions that expire later (say the end of the year) rather than sooner make sense.

Good trading!

Website error - our apologies!

Sorry folks, but it seems we had a database error on our website (http://www.optionsdetective.com) and folks were unable to register for a time.

It seems that we've had so many folks signing up, that we'd exceeded the capacity of our original database design, and it wouldn't allow any additional entries. While that was inconvenient, it was (in a way) good news!

In any event, please accept our sincere apologies--the site has been repaired, and should be working normally now.

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Thanks!

Mid-week Update

Just a quick note--with the cautious words from Mr. Bernanke, the price of oil, the Mideast and the London terrorist activity, the markets have reacted negatively.

We're now significantly under our "bullish" level of support (which was at 11,200) and have fallen past 11,100 and are threatening 11,000.

Consequently, we are now neutral-bear in our trading bias. We'll need to be above 11,100 to even consider any new longs, and realistically we'll need to break and hold 11,200 to be truly comfortable with new calls.

Short-term puts are more likely at this stage, although given the schizophrenic markets, we may consider trades on their own merits (especially channel breakouts).

A difficult week to be sure.

Mid-Week Update

Well the big news this week is today's announcement from Mr. Bernanke on interest rates. Most expect that this will be when we "pause" the rate increases (in fact some have speculated that a rate reduction may be in the works, but frankly I think this is very unlikely).

The markets will react no matter what the news, but should another increase occur, expect a rapid drop in the markets. However, I (like most) now expect rate increases to stop. Signs are showing the economy has slowed (some might say too much) and unless there's a major surprise, Mr. Bernanke is likely to pause with the increases.

The key will be whether he hints at future direction. Will this be a "pause" with rates to increase at the next meeting, or will he hint that we're done with increases for the forseeable future (or possibly have a rate drop)?

All speculation at this point, but what is certain is that the markets will react.

As for the markets, the DOW has done a nice job holding above 11,200--our previous level of resistance (and now support). Consequently, we're bullish on the DOW, so long as it remains above 11,200.

We're a bit less bullish on the NASDAQ--it's had trouble with 2,100--a major line of resistance. We bounced off this recently. However, good news today from the Fed may provide the momentum to break this level. Stay tuned--but for now, caution is the word on the NASDAQ, as we're neutral to bearish here.

Similarly, the S&P is right at resistance (1,275). We need to move above (and hold) this level to confirm our bullish tendencies. Watch for a bounce off this level though, and be prepared to close open longs should the markets quickly reverse themselves should they bounce off resistance. Right now, we're neutral on the S&P.

Clearly, we're at a "tipping point" here--and the Fed is the key. If we get good news, look for good volume breaking resistance on all the indices. If the news is bad, expect the indices to bounce off resistance levels and head back down.

The other big news this week is (of course) oil, and the closing of the BP pipeline in Alaska. It remains unclear whether this will have a major affect on the markets in the future, but as oil has been a driving force lately, we expect some repurcussions to show in the markets. Bad news from the Middle East may compound any effects from the BP pipeline, so there are many potential interactions here. The key is to stay "nimble" with any open trades.

A final note this week will be to look at CME--this stock has shown a nice breakout on clearly higher volume--a result of the announcement that CME will be added to the S&P 500 index (which means that institutional investment firms will need to buy this stock for their index funds). This may move up nicely over the coming weeks, especially should Mr. Bernanke's news be favorable. One to watch, certainly.

Good trading to all this week!

Top of the channel?

A word of caution--it seems the markets (and the DOW in particular) maybe bouncing off resistance at 11,200 and are heading back down.

Again, we'll reiterate that we need to see another move over 11,200 and a close above this level prior to establishing new long positions.

Patience is the key word this week, although aggressive traders may be trading short now. If you choose to do so, set your stops tight!